Natchitoches, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

142
FXUS64 KSHV 261140
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
640 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

 - A series of upper level troughs and disturbances will move
   across the region through next weekend, keeping daily rain
   chances in the forecast.

 - The daily rain chances could result in an elevated flood risk,
   especially on and after Wednesday, as rain chances increase.

 - Although an organized severe weather isn`t expected through
   next weekend, a random strong to isolated severe thunderstorm
   cannot be ruled out.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

A closed upper level trough has settled across East Texas. This
resulted in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across
the region yesterday, with a few showers lingering at this hour,
mainly across our Deep East Texas and adjacent Central Louisiana
zones. This lingering precipitation should diminish over the next
hour or two, with some patchy fog possible through daybreak. For
Today/Tuesday, the aforementioned closed trough will shift
northward out of East Texas into Eastern Oklahoma/Western
Arkansas. This will put the Four State Region in more of a
southwest flow aloft pattern. A series of weak disturbances will
move along the flow, bringing more rain chances to the area. Progs
suggest that most of the rain will occur during the afternoon
with the aid of daytime heating, before diminishing in coverage
after sunset. Another hot and humid day will be on tap, especially
in areas that avoid rainfall, with highs climbing into the upper
80s to possibly the lower 90s. By Tuesday night, another potent
upper trough will move across Western Texas. Models are in good
agreement that large scale forcing will produce a MCS, that will
push eastward into our forecast zones by Wednesday morning. There
is some hint that the MCS could diminish as it moves across East
Texas, but additional convection is forecasted to regenerate along
the upper trough as it continues to shift across the region
during the afternoon and evening hours. Some of this convection
could continue into the predawn hours on Thursday. A strong to
severe thunderstorm can`t be ruled out, but the greatest risk will
be flash flooding. The Weather Prediction Center has highlighted
this with a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall on Wednesday. A
Flood Watch could be needed across the region during this period.

Widespread rain chances will remain in the forecast through the
remainder of the work week into next weekend, and possibly into
early next week, as additional upper-level troughs and disturbances
move into the region. The threat for organize severe weather
should remain low during this period, although an isolated strong
to severe thunderstorm can`t be ruled. However, an elevated flood
risk will likely remain over the Four State Region. /20/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

For the 26/12 TAF update, another round of patchy MVFR/IFR
vis/cigs is affecting KMLU/KELD/KTXK and likely will until after 26/15
before VFR improvements return through most of the rest of the
period. Scattered VCTS/-TSRA (and a chance of MVFR cigs) is likely
across the airspace after 26/18Z with light southeasterly surface
winds. A round of organized TSRA could reach KTYR/KLFK by 26/09Z
through the end of the period. /16/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

While an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled
out through Wednesday, widespread severe weather is not expected.
Therefore, spotter activation is not expected over the next 24
hours. However, an increasing flood threat could develop Wednesday
into Wednesday Night across our region. /20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  71  82  70 /  20  20  70  60
MLU  88  70  85  70 /  40  20  70  60
DEQ  87  66  81  66 /  30  20  70  60
TXK  89  69  83  68 /  30  20  70  60
ELD  87  67  83  67 /  30  20  70  60
TYR  90  70  80  69 /  20  50  70  50
GGG  90  70  81  69 /  20  30  70  50
LFK  90  71  81  69 /  20  40  70  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...16