Natchitoches, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

448
FXUS64 KSHV 101102
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
602 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

 - Highs in the mid to upper 90s with dew points in the low to
   middle 70s will result in heat indices above 105 degrees for
   portions of northeast Texas, southeast Oklahoma, and southwest
   Arkansas. A Heat Advisory will be in effect from 1 PM through 8
   PM.

 - Quiet and dry weather will continue through today, with
   areawide highs in the 90s.

 - Showers and storms are expected to return this weekend north
   and east, likely to continue into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

The ArkLaTex looks to remain largely dry again today, and
accordingly temperatures will be very warm again, taking aim at the
middle to upper 90s. Based on recent trends, expecting sufficient
combination of heat and humidity to result in another round of
heat indices reaching and exceeding 105 degrees across southeast
Oklahoma and adjacent zones of southwest Arkansas and northeast
Texas. A Heat Advisory will be in effect for the impacted counties
from 1 PM through 8 PM today. Precautions should be taken to
limit outdoor exposure, stay hydrated, and have access to air
conditioning.

As the week draws to a close, the ArkLaTex will see little in the
way of upper level steering in the wake of the departed trough,
while upper level ridging amplifies to our west. As mentioned
above, today looks to remain mostly dry across the region, though
some afternoon sea breeze driven convection may just barely manage
to make it into our southernmost zones.

By early Saturday into Sunday, ridging over the western CONUS will
amplify, forming a closed high over the Four Corners region. Recent
solutions are suggesting that as this ridge amplifies, an emerging
trough over the Midwest will be tilted as it gradually stalls over
the Appalachians, potentially forming a closed low which will
retrograde towards the ArkLaTex. The westward extent of latitudinal
amplification of this trough or low will determine ArkLaTex weather
this weekend and into early next week. The latest consensus
indicates that the trough will provide forcing upon which moisture
impulses will develop and result in an unsettled pattern for the
weekend and into early next week, with areawide rainfall chances at
times, and the most likely repeated impacts across our northern and
eastern zones. At this point, highs in the 90s look to remain
entrenched in place, with the only potential exception being upper
80s in southern Arkansas with repeated rainfall and cloud cover.
Lows will continue in the 70s throughout.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

For the 10/12Z TAF period, VFR conditions will prevail throughout
the period as mostly SKC will dominate this morning before a cu
field returns toward midday into the afternoon along with some
cirrus. Most terminals should remain free of any convection except
for KLFK where some sea breeze activity may begin to encroach by
mid to late afternoon so have included VCTS during the late day
timeframe. Otherwise, look for breezy S/SW winds to prevail for
much of this TAF period with speeds generally ranging between
6-12 kts with higher gusts possible during the afternoon hours.

/19/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time. /26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  78  94  78 /   0   0  10  10
MLU  97  78  96  77 /   0   0  20  30
DEQ  96  75  94  74 /   0   0  10  40
TXK  97  78  96  77 /   0   0  10  30
ELD  96  77  95  75 /   0   0  20  40
TYR  97  78  96  78 /   0   0   0  10
GGG  96  77  95  77 /   0   0  10  10
LFK  95  77  94  76 /  10   0  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ050-051-059-070.

LA...None.
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ096-097-108>112.

&&


$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...19